European New Mobility Survey (“ENMS”) is an independent, international expert survey on the New Mobility market development.
ENMS is repeated at regular intervals and includes the segments: Digital Services, Autonomous Driving and E-Mobility. The survey is a trend analysis for the mobility market, as it is subject to dynamic, disruptive changes. The aim of the expert survey is to identify trends and problems of this development at an early stage. In particular, the differences in individual European countries are analysed. Furthermore, the different assumptions of the protagonists of this market change are analysed: automotive industry, the public sector, start-ups and investors.
However, the pan-European survey shows that this upheaval has different stages of development in the individual European countries. It also shows that the opinions of experts in the automotive industry, the public sector, start-ups and investors differ from each other.
Furthermore, the different assumptions of the protagonists of this market change are analysed: automotive industry, the public sector, start-ups and investors. The survey was conducted as an online survey, only accessible by invitation and therefore not open to the public. The study achieved a sample size of 330 mobility experts from 18 European countries.
The Future of Autonomous Driving is Public and Electric
Three-quarters (74%) of the experts see the future public use of the autonomous vehicle, as either a so-called robotic taxi (43%) or electric buses/pods (31%). The use of autonomous vehicles for private use is only predicted by a minority of 26% of the experts. In Germany, Sweden and Poland, the share of private use was particularly low. Clearly, the experts were in the matter of engine type, as 78% believe that AV will be powered by an electric motor in the future. Only 9% still rely on the classic internal combustion engine.
Intermodal Digital Services are the Future in Europe
Intermodal digital services will fundamentally change the mobility behaviour of the population. The development and implementation of so-called Mobility as a Service Apps is considered as being an advanced system by 75% of the experts. Here though, greater differences can be observed between the individual countries. For example, Finland and the Netherlands count themselves as pioneers, but the awareness of such programs in Poland is rather low. MaaS combines public and private transport services on a single access portal. The main obstacle in
introducing such a system is also seen in the difficulty of bringing together multiple vendors together on a portal, both technically and economically.
The battery electric vehicle is seen by the majority (53%) of experts as the future technology, followed by the plug-in hybrid, which 33% see as the technology of the future. Interestingly, for the hydrogen engine, the majority of experts have yet to form an opinion as the majority of experts remained neutral.
Advantages Outweigh the Disruptive Traffic Turnaround
76% of the experts believe that the benefits of disruptive transport change will outweigh the disadvantages. The main concern is seen by 54% on the question of whether the increasing electricity demand, can be covered by renewable energies.
Hotspots & Lead Countries
Paris, London, Berlin and Helsinki are the European New Mobility hotspots. These cities were already at the top of the 2016 poll, but the order this year has changed, with Paris now ranked #1. When asked about the lead countries, a differentiation was made between the three segments of the new mobility market. The USA is predicted by the vast majority of experts to become the lead-country in Connected & Autonomous Driving. In the area of electro-mobility, Norway is predicted to be ahead of China and Germany. With regards to Digital and New Mobility Services,
the experts view Germany, Finland and the USA as lead countries. When asked which countries with their car brands in the electro mobility market will gain market share in the future, only 23% of European experts predict the USA to gain market share, as it clearly ranks behind Europe (68%), China (58%) and Japan (53%).
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